Latest Senate Polls – leading in 7, close in 3-6 more

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State Incumbent Poll Dem Candidate % Rep Candidate %
AL Sessions Rasmussen 5/27 Figures 29 Sessions 62
AK Stevens Research 2000 5/12-5/14 Begich 48 Stevens 43
CO Allard Rasmussen 5/19 Mark Udall 47 Schaffer 41
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11 Vernon Jones 29 Saxby Chambliss (i) 58
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11 Dale Cardwell 27 Saxby Chambliss (i) 57
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11 Rand Knight 25 Saxby Chambliss (i) 58
GA Chambliss Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11 Josh Lanier 24 Saxby Chambliss (i) 57
GA Chambliss Rasmussen 3/20 Jim Martin 33 Chambliss 51
ID Craig Robinson Research 11/26-12/12 LaRocco 27 Risch 46
IA Tom Harkin Research 2000 4/21-4/23 Tom Harkin 57 George Eichorn 28
IA Tom Harkin Research 2000 4/21-4/23 Tom Harkin 58 Steve Rathje 23
IA Tom Harkin Research 2000 4/21-4/23 Tom Harkin 59 Christopher Reed 20
KS Pat Roberts Research 2000 6/2-6/4 Slattery 38 Roberts 50
KY McConnell Rasmussen 5/22 Bruce Lunsford 49 McConnell 44
LA Landrieu Rasmussen 5/28 Landrieu 47 Kennedy 44
ME Collins Rasmussen 5/14 Allen 42 Collins 52
MA Kerry Rasmussen 5/29 Kerry 63 Jim Ogonowski 29
MA Kerry Rasmussen 5/29 Kerry 63 Jeff Beatty 25
MI Levin Rasmussen 5/7 Levin 54 Hoogendyk 37
MN Coleman Rasmussen 5/22 Franken 45 Coleman 47
MS-A Cochran Rasmussen 5/27 Fleming 35 Cochran 58
MS-B Wicker Rasmussen 5/27 Musgrove 47 Wicker 46
NE Hagel Research 2000 5/19-5/21 Kleeb 31 Johanns 58
NH Sununu Rasmussen 5/20 Shaheen 50 Sununu 43
NM Domenici SUSA 5/30-6/1 Tom Udall 60 Steve Pearce 35
NC Dole PPP 5/28-5/29 Kay Hagan 39 Dole 47
OK Inhofe Soonerpoll.com 12/16-12/19 Andrew Rice 19 Inhofe 60
OR Smith Rasmussen 5/7 Jeff Merkley 42 Smith 45
SD Johnson Rasmussen 3/4 Johnson 63 Joel Dykstra 28
TN Alexander Rasmussen 4/3 Bob Tuke 30 Alexander 59
TN Alexander Rasmussen 4/3 Mike Padgett 31 Alexander 58
TX Cornyn Baselice & Associates (R) 5/20-5/25 Noriega 33 Cornyn 49
TX Cornyn Research 2000 5/5-5/7 Noriega 44 Cornyn 48
VA John Warner Rasmussen 5/8 Mark Warner 55 Gilmore 37

Democrats currently lead in all Democratic-held seats and in 7 GOP-held seats (AK, CO, KY, MS, NH, NM, VA) – although there is considerable skepticism about Rasmussen’s Kentucky poll. That would mean ousting 4 GOP incumbents (Stevens, McConnell, Wicker, Sununu), although Wicker is merely an appointee to an open seat. The GOP has only one good pickup opportunity – Louisiana, where Landrieu is up by only 3. We are within 5 points of defeating incumbents in Minnesota, Oregon, and Texas (I don’t count GOP internal polls). This means we are less than a 5 point swing away from a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority, which relegates the GOP to the back seat where legislation is concerned.

Beyond that, we trail by only 8 points in North Carolina, 10 points in Maine, and 12 points in Kansas. Remember what the Virginia race looked like at this point in time last year.

57 – in hand. 60 – within our grasp. 63 – within reason.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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17 thoughts on “Latest Senate Polls – leading in 7, close in 3-6 more”

  1. KY – Minority leader is a good and bad thing. MCConnell is the GOP, but he’s loaded because of it. Not sure if Lunsford can inspire Dems tog et out for him (against McConnell, yes, but that and electoral win that does not make).

    TX – Rick is great, sadly it’s $1.2 a week to be on the air in all of the TX media markets. The money is not there and sadly it won’t be. If he gets close look for him to return in 2010 as the Lt. Governor Nominee (Houston mayor Bill White goes for Gov.)

    ME – Tom Allen is going to close and close strong. Collins’ moderate views will eek her out a win though. I may be wrong here.

    KS – Slatts is good and may give Boyda enough of a bounce to be safely re-elected. This depends on how hard Sebelius hits the mat for him really. Still, it is Kansas.

    Side note: I have MN in the win column. I think it will be close but Obama’s massive win in the state is what gives Franken the bump needed to win. The rest of the races we know the story for (especially since filing closed in Alaska and Ted’s name is still on the ballot with no real primary challenger).

  2. Do y’all think we need 9 wins or 10 to be filibuster-proof?

    Did Obama talk some sense into Lieberman?  Or did Obama threaten to cut him out of the caucus?

  3. Wyoming, but does it really matter?

    As for Oklahoma, that was from last December when Rice just got his campaign off the ground. Do you have anything more recent? According to The New Republic, Rice is squeezing past Inhofe by 43%-41%, though coming from that publication I don’t know how accurate it really is.

  4. In order of liklihood or party switch and current predicted margin of victory:

    1. VA – Warner by 15

    2. NM – Udall by 12

    3. NH – Shaheen by 9

    4. CO – Udall by 8

    5. AK – Begich by 4

    6. OR – Merkley by 3

    7. MN – Franken by 2

    Races I see as being very close, with a slight advantage for the incumbent party:

    8. MS – Wicker

    9. NC – Dole

    10. LA – Landrieu

    11. ME – Collins

    12. KY – McConnell

    Races where incumbent party has a distinct advantage but have potential to be very competitive:

    13. TX – Cornyn

    14. KA – Slattery

    15. OK – Inhofe

    16. NE – Johanns

    14.  

  5. My (conservative) prediction as of June 9: I think we will ultimately win VA, NM, CO, NH, MN, and MS.  

    I think we will fall short in North Carolina and Alaska too.  I want to believe we win in Alaska, but I just cannot wrap my mind around the voters ousting Ted Stevens.  Yet.  This could easily change, but right now I cannot see it.  Is it a toss-up?  Absolutely, but this is my personal prediction.

    My biggest worries are (1) Minnesota; and (2) Louisiana.  I think we should win Minnesota, despite Coleman’s talents (or perhaps the better way to put it would be, effective sleaziness), but I am concered about Franken.  I think we ultimately win it, but it is of concern.  I think Landrieu will pull it out, but I am with Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg that too many Dems are over-looking how close this race will be.

    Finally, I think Oregon is going to be the key race to watch to elucidate national trends.  I consider this race our Senate bellweather.  We have a state than leans slightly Democratic, with a popular, shrewd incumbent Republican who is not seen as a crazy, and a Democratic candidate that is good but not top tier.  I think if we ultimately pull out this race, it will demonstrate just how toxic the GOP brand is in November.  If we win in Oregon, we probably win in places like Alaska too.  I think Maine could also be a bellweather in this regard, but from day one I have said Collins is not losing, and I still feel that way.  Still, it is a blue state…

  6. * Virginia – 37 votes (11.28%)

    * New Mexico – 36 votes (10.98%)

    * New Hampshire – 36 votes (10.98%)

    * Colorado – 36 votes (10.98%)

    * Alaska – 30 votes (9.15%)

    * North Carolina – 28 votes (8.54%)

    * Oregon – 27 votes (8.23%)

    * Louisiana – 26 votes (7.93%)

    * Mississippi – 26 votes (7.93%)

    * Minnesota – 22 votes (6.71%)

    So I think it will end up 60-40

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